Hi Many question this last week about weather reports. We never look at reports. We watch the local conditions , based on what may happen by the the clouds and air , that means 24 hours a day we are watching the sky. N- E- S- W, so this storm came from the south and east ,cold air moved in with the storm system and I saw snow on Williamson,
Now the parts of the puzzle we look for. The vapor image on the NOAA site 16km photo and see if we can spot the center of the system , that found we will know if we are in the path or spin . This will tell us what we should expect. Wind or the system is stalled, best of both conditions ,if stalled the same pattern is here ie rain, snow, hail, sleet, heat! next if the system is moving high wind could happen.
So we can watch the creeks and dry canyons to judge the rain above the portal and which canyon is holding the storm.
Now the head works we know most people will quit after seversl hours of misery , wet, cold , overcast, pouring down rain, sleet and hail and snow in July.They will be wearing shorts and not enough layers to stay dry and warm so they turn around. Best and only option they have.
Group two will buy long pants, jackets, boots and go about an hour longer get wet cold and admit they have had enough, another great choice.
Group three will have a weather report, all the gear and charge on! We see them in between group one and two in the parking lot talking about the gear and f.... weather report.
Group four you don't want to hang with these people , they wear cotton, trashbags to stay dry and eat cold canned Franco American and Velveta on white bread.
What do you do? You have No control of the weather, best option if you can stay a few extra days get another permit and do the hike when the weather is clear, dry and warm.
"We are going early to be off the summit before the storm" , That would be nice but most storms we have are late night and early morning so you are walking into a storm in the dark.
What is the weather next week??? By the looks of Noaa we are in for a ride ! Best chance would be the main system moves north and the other system stays south.
Thanks Doug