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1 in 70 million? I think one might have to reduce that ratio just a little....adjusted for the number of actual backpackers that go into the Sierras.
I don't have any idea how many backpackers go into the Sierras each year.....maybe 3-5 thousand? Do we count day hikes?
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I agree that the entire population of the state is not in danger of being attacked by a bear. But 3-5 thousand? First of all, you need to count car campers because many (most?) attacks occur in or near campgrounds accessible by car. You certainly have to count day hikers. There are over 10 thousand day hike permits issued each year for Whitney alone. Your chances of being attacked by a bear are less than one in a mission, and you can reduce the chance a lot by not being stupid.
Last edited by AlanK; 08/26/07 05:04 PM.
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Below is the State of California Department of fish and Game website with their summary of bear incidents over the last 27 years. I appreciate Ken's references but one of them comes filtered through a journalist whose agenda is unknown. If you read these carefully, I think one could surmise that several of these could have been avoided with appropriate safety exercised by the victims. http://www.dfg.ca.gov/news/issues/bear/bear_incidents.htmlI think Ken's numbers are overstated because not all 35 Million Californian's are in areas where a bear attack is possible. However, the odds are very high. When one considers that 1 in every 160 newborns are afflicted with Autism and 35,000 people a year are killed in alcohol related traffic accidents, I think all this conversation about bears in the Sierra's is way over the top. Icystair - I think you might be surprised to find that there are 3 - 5 thousand people in the Sierra's every day, that would include dayhikers, campers at organized campgrounds, and backpackers scattered over the 1,000 plus miles of the entire range. I think there are probably over a thousand in Yosemite NP alone where bear encouters and sightings are the most frequent. I think if anyone wants to fear animals in the Sierra's I would focus my attention on mountain lions but these attackes seem to occur more frequently near populated areas rather than along the JMT/PCT and HST routes. Ken - Jim from VVR and FS Ranger Ian Anderson said to say hello.
Last edited by Memory Lapse; 08/26/07 05:08 PM.
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I agree that the odds of being attacked by a bear in the Sierras are infinitesimally small.
Bob K's original survery,however, was: Suppose you went backpacking alone and unarmed in the Sierras. What do you think are your chances that you will be attacked by a bear where you could get injured or killed?
How many backpackers hike solo? I haven't met that many on the trail, Moose Tracks is a wonderful exception!
5,000 solo backcountry hikers per year....there probably aren't that many.
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I don't know how many solo backpackers there are every year in the Sierra. Let's go with your number off 5000. To make an estimate of the odds, we need a numerator. On average, how many solo backpackers are attacked by bears in a year. Certainly much less than 1.
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Sorry, I overlooked the "alone" qualifier but I think if you read the CF&G incidents you might see that the majority of those incidents did not involve people backpacking alone.
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Hiking alone in the Sierra's? I would say odds of being attacked is less than one in 10,000. You could increase or decrease those odds depending on where you are hiking alone in the Sierra's.
There are too many variables. The risk is highest in areas where campers and their waste is the most dense and in areas where PARK BEARS have been relocated. I have spent time in true wilderness areas where the bears are really wild and they avoid you like the plague. I have spent time in Nat. Forest and Park areas where the bears are shamelessly bold.
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The link Memory Lapse provides takes you to a Department of Fish and Game page that indicates just how talented bears have become. One incident report begins this way:
"Siskiyou County, August 1991 – While archery hunting for deer in the Marble Mountain Wilderness, a black bear ..."
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Does pepper spray work? (Can dogs really laught) A true story! Years ago, when I was single, I had bought a package of two small canisters of pepper spray and gave one to my girlfriend to keep in her purse and I had the other. One sunny afternoon while trying to sleep on the couch, my large dog kept jumping up and scatching the back(glass) sliding door. I would yell at him to get down, but nothing would work until I got up and opened the door. He would then run to the other side of the yard. This went on many times. I saw the pepper spray and had an idea. I would spray the outside of the door, to keep him off it. Instead of going outside I just closed the door on my arm and sprayed the outside of the door...it worked; no more dog at the door. I went and washed my hands. Several minutes later,while laying on the couch and watching TV, I had a itch, which I scratched.
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD!!!! Great balls of fire!!!! I spent the next hour in the shower. When I came back to the living room I thought I heard my dog laughing in the back yard. Never buy that stuff, it WORKS!
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How about a little survey here. Suppose you went backpacking alone and unarmed in the Sierras. What do you think are your chances that you will be attacked by a bear where you could get injured or killed? 1 chance in ...? It might be interesting to see what answers people here come up with. I've been hiking, always unarmed and quite often alone, Sierras and elsewhere, for quite a few years, and so far the chances are zero. I also surf in an ocean where there are sharks, unarmed (few surfers pack guns 8^), and have done so for many years without incident. I think the chances are much greater that on the way to the Sierras, someone with a giant SUV that he bought to "protect his family" will make a mistake, veer over into my lane, and annihilate me, an innocent bystander. Perhaps I should drive a loaded tank instead...8^). Coupling this thread with another recent one that dealt with ipods and confronting people who play loud music, I see a somewhat disturbing situation. People are willing to pack guns even where they're not allowed, believing they need them for protection, yet another is defending the idea of simply confronting folks in the wilderness who have annoyingly-loud music playing. Suppose the guy takes offense and he's also packing his .357? Bear and mountain lion (and shark) attacks do happen; but like the Yosemite Half dome cable incidents, are made known by the media, so a million in one chance suddenly becomes something to be paranoid about. I can remember thinking I needed to bring a gun to the mountains long ago, but have long since abandoned it as unnecessary and a bad idea. And I've never needed it, though I see folks who feel insecure without one. Not to say that there's not a time when a gun could save your or your family's life, but the same could be said for walking down a city street without one. Use some common sense around animals, and the likelihood of ever needing a gun in most wilderness areas is extremely remote; if you have one and start blasting away, you might hit something you shouldn't, and if you don't have one, you'll be forced to use your head instead of the gun, which is better anyway. Gary
Last edited by Gary R; 08/27/07 07:40 PM.
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"People are willing to pack guns even where they're not allowed, believing they need them for protection, yet another is defending the idea of simply confronting folks in the wilderness who have annoyingly-loud music playing. Suppose the guy takes offense and he's also packing his .357?"
Sorry, I haven't figured out how to make the nice "your quote" box... Gary, this argument doesn't make any sense to me. If other hikers annoy me should I not carry my bear spray, my ice ax, my crampons, my utility knife etc because I could just as easily use them as a weapon? There's no correlation. You're either a hotheaded nut or you're not. Carrying a gun does not make you one or cause you to become a violent person. My fervent prayer is that I will NEVER fire my gun to protect myself.
"Not to say that there's not a time when a gun could save your or your family's life, but the same could be said for walking down a city street without one. Use some common sense around animals, and the likelihood of ever needing a gun in most wilderness areas is extremely remote; if you have one and start blasting away, you might hit something you shouldn't, and if you don't have one, you'll be forced to use your head instead of the gun, which is better anyway."
There are a couple of streets even here in my "safe" town, Santa Barbara, that I would not walk on at certain times of the night. Nor would I be stupid enough to do it anyway because I own a gun. Why? I don't want to shoot anyone and I can get by without being on those two streets between the hours of 11pm and 6am. However, there are times that I CHOOSE to go into the domain of hostiles - grizzly bears. Is it likely I'll have a bad encounter with one? No. But the outcome of an encounter with one can be LETHAL. This is something I wish to avoid. So I do use my common sense. I hike with others. I check with rangers. We make noise, use a bear cannister etc. And I also carry a gun. Using "my head" is not something I stop doing when carrying a gun. The two are NOT mutually exclusive. In fact, for me, the opposite is true. I'm more vigilant and thoughtful of my surroundings and companions when I'm carrying a gun than when I'm not because... I don't want to use it. I also don't want to be grizzly chow.
Last edited by WhitRat; 08/27/07 10:26 PM.
Always do right - this will gratify some and astonish the rest. -- Mark Twain
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I'm following some journals and blogs of hikers doing the PCT and JMT this year. Some bear and mountain lion stories so far:
6July2007 The breakfast combo with coffee and juice that I had at the Tuolumne Meadows store put a nice start on the day. Some hikers were off early but others like me continued our rest and resupply routines as we hung out at the picnic tables in front of the store. I picked up my food box (thanks Dad!) and new tent poles (thanks Chris at Big Agnes) and returned my old tent poles. Throughout the morning hikers made themselves ready and hit the trail. Around the table and over the last week the bear stories are starting to come out. A pair of John Muir Trail hikers were accosted by a troublesome bear at Reds Meadow. One was swiped on the head and the other was bit lightly on the foot while they were cowboy camping. They had arrived at night and didn't realize that half the cg had been closed due to the bear and they happened to camp in the bear's favorite spot. The bear was actually captured in a preset humane trap shortly after the attack. Another hiker woke up to a bear in his face in the Thousand Lakes area. When he tried to scare the bear off, it grabbed his pack and charged off. The hiker and his buddy chased down the bear and tried to scare it off by yelling, beating on trees with trekking poles and throwing objects at the bear, all to no affect. The hiker told the story with a completely hoarse voice that resulted from his ursine conversations. He said the bear only responded when he used a bear voice and as the bear was distracted by this voice he was able to grab the pack away before the bear took off. He lost his voice but did get his pack back sans the top closing section that was ripped off. Wow! We all marvelled at his voice, the story and the ripped pack. A couple came in that had lost their food to a bear who procured and supped on the food in their Ursack. They were righteously bummed.
11August2007 We were back on the trail around 3pm and hiked way down into Vidette Meadows. This was one of my favorite sections so far. The meadow was so green and we even say many ferns growing. The canynon seems so narrow, so the amazing mountains with jagged peaks are so close around us. Tomorrow is a big hike up Forrester Pass. Dad wanted to get some of the elevation done today, so we hiked about 1000 feet up and are camped just inside of treeline near a brook. For the second time on this trip Dad saved the day-and my food supply from a bear. Since my bear cinnister is now full, finding anything is nearly mpossible without pulling everything out. Of course my toothbrush always seems to fall to the bottmo, so I had all my food out of the cannister looking for my toothbrush. Dad was burshing his teeth and walked out to the woods to spit when I hear him yelling. I looked up in time to see a very huge bear turning and running away. Dad said the bear looked startled when the two of them made eye contact. Thankfully Dad had seen him and he ran away before he was at my cannister. Hopefully we scared him away for the night! We are both anxious to hike up Forrester Pass tomorrow!
4August2007 I was hiking under a high cliff on the west side of Mt. Washington when a running mountain lion caught my eye above me, maybe 400 or 500 feet. It ran up onto a ledge, looked down at me and bounded off into some trees. I have never seen a big cat before in the wild. It scared me. For the next 4 miles I sang and shouted at the top of my lungs and didn't even stop to pee. When I forgot the lyrics I clapped my hands. Silly, but I did not see it again.
14August2007 I arrive at the Parks Creek Trailhead and take a break, sitting down by a cluster of three large stones to prepare breakfast, just in time to see a man unloading two llamas from a trailer. As the llama guy walks past me, I duly note a Colt 45 on his hip. It's the first gun I've seen on the hike. Another man, after saying goodbye to his wife, heads in my direction. We end up in a few minutes of PCT chatter, and I realize he also has a 38 pistol on his hip. Now that’s two guns within minutes of each other. I ask him about the gun, and he warns, “There are cougars in the area, and I wouldn't go hiking without carrying my weapon.” “Should I be worried?” “You never know, but never run from the animal, he'll think you’re prey. Stand your ground and make yourself look as big as possible." That sounds a lot like the response to a bear confrontation. We wish each other good hiking, and off he goes. Now I become concerned—here I am with all this food out!
30July2007 We descended from the pass to Thousand Island Lake an excellent setting for back country camping except for its proximity to a road-thus increasing the number of visitors-and trail reports that this was Bear Territory with an aggressive, active, adult black bear in the neighborhood. Therefore Meng and I took a moment here to take in the scenery, refill our water, and have a quick bite to eat before we pushed on further South...Made an early dinner and watched the sky change color and the shadows creep in on Shadow Creek before retiring to our tents for an early evening. It was still only twilight as we lay in our tents reviewing the trail profile and description for the next day. From our respective tents we discussed the potential fishing and where we thought we should make camp for the next day. It was not even completely dark when I started to doze off. In a boy scouts hazy dream I sensed something and then heard Meng: “BEAR!” “Bear!” “Go on Bear and git.” I rolled on my side and looked towards Meng’s tent and pack and sure enough there it was a great big old bear of a bear. Probably 300 pounds (plus) sniffing and a pawing at Meng’s pack. I started to holler “Bear git!” as Meng slapped at his tent and hollered away. The bear seemed indifferent to our scare tactics until Meng slapped at his tent hard and I started the zipper on my door. Only then and ever so gently did the bear turn and amble away. We scrambled from our tents with our head lamps blazing after the bear but it was gone. The bear had walked right past our canisters paying them no attention and went straight to Meng’s pack. The quick sneak attack in hopes of a forgotten candy bar. Nothing doing. Now we gathered up our packs and clothes and gear and put it all a good 20 meters out of camp. We shined our lights on the rocky outcrop. Then, we heard hollers and saw lights from a camp further along the creek and down the hill from us. We figured the campers were having an unenvited visitor. A few minutes later, a little further down the creek, more screams, more lights. Like a doctor at the hospital the bear was making its rounds. Wearily and warily we climbed back into our sleep bags and zipped up our tents-our only line of protection against the outside world. The tent works swell at keeping mosquitos out. Bears? Not so much.
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To me, the question about the odds of a bear attack misses the point. It is an objective risk in the back country and the question is how you want to manage or mitigate that risk. I have seen bears on multiple climbs and hikes, sometimes closer than I would like. Last month in Yellowstone I saw the biggest grizzly I've ever witnessed. It was in the same area where a hiker was found half eaten by a bear several years ago. These are wild animals and somewhat unpredictable.
I don't carry bear spray when I am climbing Whitney, but do carry it in many other back country areas such as Yosemite (Tuolumne) and Yellowstone. Just because the odds of a bear attack is vanishingly low doesn't translate into not being prepared for one in the back country, in my view.
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Just because the odds of a bear attack is vanishingly low doesn't translate into not being prepared for one in the back country, in my view. "There's something happening here What it is ain't exactly clear There's a man with a gun over there Telling me I got to beware" Buffalo Springfield
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Funny, but this discussion of heavy backpacks, and the Glock, reminds me of a backpack trip I took a long, long time ago in the Eastern Sierras....
In 1975, the summer after I graduated from HS, I did an 11 day backpack trip with some HS classmates. (I can't remember where we started, but I do remember hiking about 11 miles the final day, crossing over both Forrester and Kearsarge Passes to get to Onion Valley.) On one of the days (and I recall it vividly - it was my 18th birthday), we met a young married couple doing their own long trip on the trail. The husband, a recent college grad, definitely had a big, heavy pack, complete with an extension (this was back in the days of only external frame packs.) As it was around noon, they were stopping to snack. When he opened the top compartment of his pack, he lifted out a .44 Magnum. (No, I am not mistaken. I can still picture it now, 33 years later. It was HUGE!) We were all opened-mouthed when he pulled his piece out, and, of course, asked him about it. He said it was there to protect against bear attacks. What we were amazed about back then: 1. The trail head signs, and our permits, clearly stated No Fires and No Firearms. 2. A S&W .44 Magnum must weigh over 3 lbs. 3. I can understand him wanting to protect what he holds most precious - his wife - but how about a .38 instead. Did he really need something that would stop a rhino??
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What we were amazed about back then: 1. The trail head signs, and our permits, clearly stated No Fires and No Firearms. 2. A S&W .44 Magnum must weigh over 3 lbs. 3. I can understand him wanting to protect what he holds most precious - his wife - but how about a .38 instead. Did he really need something that would stop a rhino?? I am from Montana and have spent some time in Alaska. I can tell you without a doubt that a .38 will not stop a bear. I have seen head shots from a 30-06 that only slowed a bear down and still required 3 more shots to drop it. A .44 is not enough to stop a charging grizzly but maybe enough to deter a california black bear....for a few seconds. I used to carry a .357 in glacier park (against the law) but when i look back now i realize it was really just for peace of mind. I have never carried a gun while hiking in California though. Everything I shoot is with my camera. BUT...since this thread was about pack weight I must say that my 3 day hiking pack weighs in at about 25 lbs MAX. I am small and i like to move fast. I tend to think heavy pack people are weird, lol.
Last edited by Fuji Guy; 07/14/08 04:36 AM.
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Was the "No Firearms" sign at the trailhead in Onion Valley or was it further up the trail? While guns are not allowed in the national parks, they are in the wilderness areas, I believe. I saw the PCT entry below from one of the 2007 journals.
"Yesterday we saw all these big burly men climbing up toward Kearsarge Pass as we were climbing down. All of them had absurdly huge packs and some of them had handguns in holsters on their hipbelts and rifles on their packs. We asked one of them what the gun was for and he said, "Oh, I've seen bears up in this valley before."
Another of the friendlier ones stopped to talk to us and said they're all cops on vacation. The more I thought about this the more infuriated I got - they're going into a national park where firearms are not legal (let alone necessary), but because they're cops they somehow feel they're above the law.
Well, today we ran into the same dumbasses. I stopped to talk to one I noticed had TWO guns.
"Hi!" I said, all chipper and cheerful-like. He smiled at me.
"You know, I think it's actually illegal to carry guns here," I said, still in a superfriendly, informative voice.
His smile went away.
"No, it's actually not," he said coldly.
"It is in the National Park," I said, still cheerful.
"We didn't go into the National Park," he said, grouchily.
This was an interesting claim, because he was right - we were still in the John Muir Wilderness and about a mile away from Kearsarge Pass, which is where Kings Canyon N.P. starts. But he was walking down from the pass, so it was a little hard to believe he'd stopped short of it and not camped at the lakes on the other side. But I let this point go because he was already walking away, so I just said, "Oh, OK, bye."
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I enjoy shooting guns. That being said, on a backpacking trip in the Sierra they are 100% unnecessary.
It amazes me that someone would carry a gun with the idea of shooting it if needed for protection. Do you know how far a bullet carries? I would never want to shoot a gun, not knowing what is down-trail from my target. Worse, I would hate to be the person a mile down-trail from the shooter, perhaps hiking cross-country, scaling a mountain side, etc. You never know who is out there in the wilderness.
The stories told here really bother me---it is so idiotic to carry a gun in the Sierra. Alaska (and maybe Montana/Western Canada) may be another story. But not needed in CA wilderness areas.
My $.02.....
Oh, yeah, my pack is usually 30-45#, depending on how long I'll be gone.
Last edited by Just Another Mile; 07/14/08 10:01 PM.
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Resurrecting this thread... Rather than hijack the Heavy Backpacks thread by debating whether or not it is ok or necessary to carry guns when backpacking... Please use this thread instead. Thanks.
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