The first two weeks of October is probably my favorite time to do a loop up the MR and down the MT with a quick break for Muir, ideally right before that first storm. Even with the El Niño warnings, it's all going to depend on what the jet stream is doing. Many years it gets locked in and you can see the very noticeable line delineating its boundary, usually around Big Pine/Bishop, looking at the range and seeing minimal snow levels and then almost a wall of snow northward. Experience, preparation, and paying attention is 90% of the equation, but it sounds like you're well aware of that. Have a great trip!
