Hello everyone,

In 2019 we summited in the middle of October but back then the weather was very favorable and there was no ice except for a small stretch at the very top.

We have a day permit for Oct 30th, 2021. It appears the conditions are changing quite fast since Oct 10th, snow and cold. Current weather predictions call for snow on Oct 25th as well.

We are not experienced climbers so very likely we will turn back at some point. Any suggestions/options on how far we can expect to hike? Thanks

Best,
Arjun

Not sure where you got the Oct 25 snow report,most often we are looking next day at best,now the snow we have and could get will add to the upper area say above Outpost Camp. Winter temps are here 32 again this AM at 8000 ft. The North Facing area of the trail will stay covered until next summer so if you recall from your last trip that area starts just short of Lone Pine Lake and onto trailcrest.
Summer hiking conditions are over ,plan on very cold night temps and ice at all water crossings. You will be hiking in the dark at the start and finish.
Late October isn't a time for gambling on weather being mild or dry conditions.
One may read reports of hikers summiting ,people summit ski and climb all year ,most often they are experienced mountaineers with the required gear and experience to safely travel during winter conditions.

Thanks Doug. I looked up the weather at this site: https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Mount-Whitney/forecasts/4418

Not sure how accurate since it no longer shows snow on Oct 25th. As you said, probably best to look at next day. Thanks again for the response

Here is my report from 10/14-10/16:

I went up from LA on Thursday, 10/14. I slept in the walk-in campground at the Portal. There is minimal snow on the ground here and there in the Portal, and the pond is frozen. There was one other hiker with me in the camping area. A few people in the overflow lot slept in their trucks/SUVs.

I was up at 3 am and on the trail shortly afterward. I hit Outpost around 6:30, dropped my big pack off, and continued with my day pack. Summitted and returned to Outpost in the dark. I headed out around 6 am on Saturday.

Thursday was cold. Friday it warmed up, and Saturday it seemed like it was getting warmer (although I was heading down).

There is snow and light ice here and there after 9k ft., but it is mostly avoidable until the switchbacks (mainly starting at #25 or so). On the switchbacks, I went without microspikes on the way up, but used them on the way down since I was moving at a faster pace. I saw some using them, and others not. I did not need them after the switchbacks. When I went up much of the snow wasn't icing up, but all the ingredients are there for ice soon. I did run into one person who slipped and hurt their knee.

The lake at trail camp is mostly frozen, but if you loop around to the point where it flows into Lone Pine creek there is thinner ice you can break. There's plenty of water at Outpost, although I did not see much that wasn't frozen by Trailside Meadow.

My sleeping gear included a 3 season ultralight tent, a microfiber synthetic 35-degree sleeping bag, and a Sea to Summit Reactor Extreme Thermolite Liner. I also wore wool socks, Smartwool 150s on my legs and body, with a Patagonia sweater jacket, and a light puffer that I could take off and on as needed. I was cold, but I can be more sensitive to being cold and tend to have cold hands and feet, so take this for what it's worth.

This was my first time up. I made some mistakes but overall had a great time. Happy to respond to questions. I'll check-in for the next few hours.

Hey great report you hit all the critical details, the reason snow /ice is holding on the upper switcback area they are north facing and in the shadow most of the day. Backside very seldom has snow until we get a major system with little wind most storms have high wind and blow the snow over the crest and will drift just above Outpostcamp and onto trailcrest . Thank you for the report.

Thanks Doug.

A few things I forgot:

I used an R2 foam pad and an R2.5 air pad on 10/14, and just the R2 foam pad on 10/15. I could feel that 10/15 wasn't as cold as 10/14, but I lost some of the heat I built up from the day and should have used both on 10/15.

I took crampons and an ax just beyond Trail Camp but stashed them there when I saw that I didn't need them and wanted to lighten the load up. I saw a few people do this.

Thanks for the detailed report. Looking forward to our hike on the 30th and keeping fingers crossed there is no major storms prior to 31st

Mountain-forecast is predicting ~75 inches of snow on Whitney on 24-25th. Is that normal?

As soon as I said I hope there is no major storm, mountain forecast comes up with a 75 inch prediction. Gulp.

:D, ya jinxed yourself. There's going to be 60mph gusting winds, I'd poop my pants in those conditions. Hopefully the storm moves northwards. These long dated forecasts are hardly ever accurate, so there's still hope the forecast changes in the next week. Good luck on your travels sir.

It could happen , but walk along the logic: 60 MPH wind the snow would end up some where in Kansas , next 75 inches not 71.38 most often we see weather reports in inches of moisture say 1 inch that would equeal 1 foot of snow. Next we get about 3-4 inches of rain a year and slightly more at the upper elevations . Recall we are listed as desert not rain forest .

The Sierra could get 15 feet , the Sierra range is about 450 miles ,so when we see reports of "The Sierra" it means very little until we draw down to the southern end of the Sierra and check the National Weather service forecast and then we have little faith in the moisture , wind /temps are close but moisture is a wild card.

Recall we are on the lee side of most winter systems so the west side will get much more moisture than our side.
You will see reports for the JMT/ PCT weather again these trails are on the west side of the range in our area.

We have entered into the winter cycle now cold nights with wind and water sources have frozen. Tents last night at trail camp blown apart , most just came down not going higher up.

Day hikers still starting between 1-2 AM, very cold and risk missing the trail during the dark and will travel slower looking for the trail above Outpost Camp.

Any condition updates after the storm?

Here is an update (copy/paste) from - https://www.alltrails.com/trail/us/california/mount-whitney-via-mount-whitney-trail


"My permit was for the 25th, but due to the snowstorm. I didnt go. I tried to go up today, the 26th, got up to lone pine lake to test it out, lone pine has about a foot of snow. Im not ready for that assuming the higher I go the worst it gets. I didnt bring my spikes. Had to remind myself that “the mountain will always be there” will come back next year."

System moved out yesterday about 4 PM. 2 inches in the Portal after the shift from light rain to snow. A group of ladies went to,Lone Pine Lake yesterday to check out the trail and reported about a foot of snow at the Lake.

Wind on the ridge all day check the webcam in the morning and you should see the spin drift if you do the time lapse.
Hikers went to outpost today snow about

18-20 inches ,most often the drifts will start above mirror lake ,wind blown around trailcamp and west side but the main problem if not experienced with snow travel people tend to take regular steps and not rotate leads making trail .
The mountain conditions now are in the transition period not cold enough to melt/freeze ,crust up where you can stay on the surface and steep section still soft snow so crampons are not useful
A strong team can lay a track in , history shows many won't stay in the track. And added many can't follow the map since the trail could/will be covered.
Watch reports from hikers and check the State they are from. This gives a clue of winter experience and a comfront with snow travel.

Outpost Camp --> Trail Camp:
- Occasional ice, 2-3 of consolidated snow
- Mirror Lake partially frozen, still possible to get water
Trail Camp --> Trail Crest:
- Rarely ice
- 1-2 feet of powder snow
- Trail has been established
- Specifically switchback #48 after the cables is extremely sketchy, there is a section where you must climb 10-20 feet vertically up the snow slope and it's very hard to get purchase with crampons or ice axe.
Trail Crest --> Summit:
- Varies between 1 foot of snow to just dirt
- A couple spots where you are relying on a single foothold, on top of powder mind you.
- Navigating and route finding near the needles is difficult and takes time, footsteps are not consistent and you will find yourself off trail occasionally, although fairly easily to reestablish
Top:
- 2 feet of snow
- Path only has 2-3 inches compacted
- No ice

Went up to the Portal yesterday say 20 cars in the lots , No snow temp 40 Talked with people making it to the summit but these are experienced climbers not hikers so without winter skills could be a a great hike to trail camp.
Very dry fall , but we are getting the 7 foot of wind often , about a wreck a week on 395 around Olancha , yesterday 395 closed about 6 hours both directions.

Many tickets for speeding in towns this week also Speed limit Lone Pine 25 MPH, Indy 30 and Big Pine 35 and Bishop back to 25 MpH.

Until we get snow and it packs ice ax /crampons will not help much walking on rock trail for many miles , spikes on the flat section may work better , and leave on when you get out of the car you only need them just after you didn't put them on slip on black ice.

Have a great holiday stay safe where ever you travel!

Best update snow deep on the Portal Road County was up to close the upper gate so when they get to the gate and check no cars stranded in the upper area most likely the mid gate will be locked for the season . Caution deep snow starting about the lower gate .

With the amount at the lower elevation my thoughts are 3-4 feet and deeper drift at the higher elvation.

Jackets and snacks !

Enough snow to fill in the lower North Fork?

Not yet would be patchy and not enough to stay on top

The offical ROAD CLOSED SIGN was put up yesterday 16 Dec. The road was very icy and this will not clear this winter above the campground. This area is covered by the shadow from the ridge south and tree shadow . Once the sun hits the road area above the campground parts melt out but in the Portal proper many years not till mid May or later.

This last sysetem hit north hard but we had a touch ,made it down to just above Lone Pine Campground,system stalled yesterday about Big Pine but roads were a mess Chain control from Big Pine to Nevada State line.

Check the webcam and like I use for snow coverge the flat area center of photo is Thor 12,000' elevation , rocks are still showing today it needs to be deep white and set up before solid easy winter travel for experienced climbers.